Some may argue gold is still in a bull market & on a fifty year...

Some may argue gold is still in a bull market & on a fifty year chart that may be correct, however I don't have patience for that, unlike the Chinese.

So what are we likely to see that indicates a turn in the gold market?
Gold obviously doesn't trade in isolation & for gold to have any chance of a sustained recovery the rebound in the USD probably needs to abate as well.

Key indicators for me will be.
* Likely to see some production curtailed & perhaps even the odd producer go bust.
* ETF selling needs to be completed.
* Stock markets perhaps correct.
* A sleeper is the US bond market & potential implications of the bubble bursting.
* USD strength starts hurting the US economy & US corporate earnings. (ties into perhaps a pullback in stocks)

We are now around mid way through the physical demand season for gold & gold has only gone in one direction & even in AUD terms its down. That could change before the season is out as we saw in Dec 2013 with a $200 rally.
However if it doesn't what holds gold up when the physical demand season draws to a close?
This imo this is when we may see a bottom, early to mid 2015.
Obviously there are a lot of things that could happen between now & then to alter the view above.

Thoughts?