Hi Iron,I don't think we will ever see a $1.40 bid by BHP,...

Hi Iron,

I don't think we will ever see a $1.40 bid by BHP, although I could see the SP rise to that or more if OZL are able to trade its way out of this mess. If it did rise to that then I think a small cap raising may be in order to extinguish more debt.

More likely bid from BHP would be 0.07 to 0.75 should FIRB say no, or up to $1 (or scrip) if FIRB say yes. If BHP bid early it may confuse the FIRB

I think this all hinges on asset sales to remove current risk. If this happens even the FIRB delay is not necessarily bad news.

If OZL do trade out of this, I have to ask myself whether I want to keep investing in a company who's board and CEO I have lost faith in. March quarterly report is eagerly anticipated as it will report cash position and burn

We just have to be patient and wait and see. If asset sales occur, banks extend finance, and metal prices go up, the MM deal may become a base rather than the ceiling it is at te moment.

Gut feel probabilities (based on metals prices etc)

Administration 30% (falling)
Other company takover 10% (rising)
MM bid 40% (falling)
Trade out 20% (rising)

Some food for thought anyway.