PMT (ASX) WHEN IS PP?

Originally posted by dc1234: ↑

Is trading in ASX stocks very disadvantageous compared to other jurisdiction?
.
There is something unusual happening. I have been observing that for some time. I have been writing that on my Uranium stock analysis for last few weeks. When I looked at the numbers, it was alarming. I thought, that this issue is with Uranium stocks. I am now seeing a similar pattern starting to evolve for Lithium stocks. Its very concerning. There is no confirmation on Lithium yet, but Uranium trend is now close to over 3 months. Lithium unusual trend has just started. I did some analysis, numbers, etc, so sharing that.
.
What is alarming?
ASX stocks are grossly underperforming other jurisdiction stocks - like China/US etc
This trend of grossly underperforming is now nearly confirmed in the Uranium sector - I have been writing about it, on and off, for over a month now
Lithium underperformance has just recently started.
If, and there is a big IF, ASX Lithium stocks underperform like ASX Uranium stocks, then we may be in trouble. Possibly serious trouble. Hence the word alarming.

This week and today, most ASX Lithium stocks, broke their first level of resistance. A number that was firmly there as good support, many ASX Lithium stocks lost it today/this week. its concerning.

Losing first level of resistance is not a big thing. Stocks go down, we all know. What is a big thing, is a trend, where it is now getting very marked that ASX Lithium Stocks are not only underperforming Chinese/US Li stocks, but going in opposite direction. This is a recent phenomena. Normally, I may have overlooked because its not a big deal. On Wednesday, someone on GLN thread had asked me a query, and in reply I had written the 3 scenarios that can play out for our ASX Li stocks. I have copied that in the end of the post. Over there I had mentioned, about how ASX Uranium stocks are diverging from US Uranium stocks. My worry, and reason for post, it is now looking very likely in Uranium, can that happen to Lithium as well?

Overall Lithium stocks are coming back. Ganfeng trying to do a new 52 week high, ALB above 50% of its lows, so much better than couple of months back. So if the sector improves like this, and Ganfeng/ALB etc keep rising, we would want all our ASX Li stocks to rise as well, isn't it? But if others keep rising, and we are stagnant or going down, or if they rise, say 50%, and we only 10/20%, that's not good. Can either of these situations happen. My post is about that, possibility. Nothing confirmed yet. It may not happen. But best to know the data. Before, rather than later.

Tables Below:
My first table is for Lithium, where I have shown the price change in last 3 weeks. Its very obvious that something is wrong with ASX Li stocks.
My second table is for Uranium. Most Uranium stocks made a new low in early August, and then have been rising. Again I have compared US Uranium stocks and ASX Uranium stocks. There is a marked difference.

The reason I have put Uranium table here, is because its more advanced, mature, going for 3 months. Its early days in Lithium. But sometimes can provide direction.

I don't have an opinion at this stage. I am watching. Each of us may have different timeframes, expectation, etc, so something that may be concerning to me, may not be concern to others, or to most. But I thought I will put the numbers in front.

Table 1 - Share Price movement of Lithium Stocks in last 3 weeks
.
.
.
.
Table 2 - Share Price movement of Uranium stocks in last 3 months
.
.
.
.
Copy of my post around what could happen to ASX Li stocks, which I posted on a thread couple of days back.
.
There are 3 scenarios.

First, Both Chinese Li and ALB are not able to sustain the rise and they come down. Then ASX Li will also come down from here. The drop for Chinese and ALB could be higher than ASX Li, may be because they have gone higher.
.
Second, though other jurisdiction Li stocks rise, ASX Li continues to lag for a long time. It may not sound logical, but can happen. In Uranium sector, Cameco (CCJ) is the biggest Uranium stock in world, and provides direction to the Uranium sector and stocks. Yesterday it made a new 52 week high in US. Normally, in previous runs, all other U stocks, including ASX U stocks would go in tandem and it would benefit all. Currently, most ASX U stocks are sitting below 50% of their highs. So there is a big disparity now. In US, the U stocks are making merry, making new highs, whereas ASX U stocks are in strife. This is going on for couple of months. Even today, ASX U stocks were down slightly, normally they would have a good green getting boost from CCJ. Will that disparity end, I don't know. Unusual play. Who knows ASX Li stocks also behaving like that, and a similar disparity is created. Its possible. I wouldn't think it would happen, but probability is there. It may show that ASX punters in general, across different sectors, have become very risk averse and all sectors associated with this mind set may struggle.
.
Third, for short periods of time, a disparity could happen. If Chinese and ALB hold their current level, then there is a good chance ASX Li may catch up in short term. I am hoping for this play to happen.But after seeing the lag of ASX U stocks, I am alert of that phenomena that we could continue to lag for a long time, so if I feel it may happen in Li as well, then I may take action. All the best.

Expand

Is it possible that US/Chinese Li stocks are producing more downstream value-add products such as LiOH, Li2CO3 etc but ASX Li stocks are mostly just digging the ore out of the ground with no capabilities to upgrade them?

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	78	25.0¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

25.0¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
25.5¢	143733	12

Price($)

Vol.

No.

25.5¢

143733

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	8212	0.250
19	261449	0.245
20	498964	0.240
7	68373	0.235
11	86656	0.230

No.

Vol.

Price($)

8212

0.250

261449

0.245

498964

0.240

68373

0.235

86656

0.230

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.255	143393	11
0.260	62535	24
0.265	48544	16
0.270	4188	6
0.275	51762	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.255

143393

0.260

62535

0.265

48544

0.270

4188

0.275

51762

(20min delay)
Last 25.0¢		Change -0.010(3.85%)		Mkt cap ! $134.8M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
25.5¢	25.5¢	24.8¢	$230.8K	918.7K

Is it possible that US/Chinese Li stocks are producing more...

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 013 - They changed the IPO rules (and that's a good thing)

'Clearly superior': Betr doesn't want to accept PointsBet picking Mixi instead

'Encouraging' signs as ASM puts cash-saving options to test at Dubbo drill site

ASX Market Open: Hopes turn on Israel-Iran attacks barely rattling crude price | June 17, 2025

Iran, nuclear energy, oil – a revival for hydrogen! Nel ASA, Pure Hydrogen, Plug Power, and Oklo

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Is it possible that US/Chinese Li stocks are producing more...

Top Stories

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 013 - They changed the IPO rules (and that's a good thing)

'Clearly superior': Betr doesn't want to accept PointsBet picking Mixi instead

'Encouraging' signs as ASM puts cash-saving options to test at Dubbo drill site

ASX Market Open: Hopes turn on Israel-Iran attacks barely rattling crude price | June 17, 2025

Iran, nuclear energy, oil – a revival for hydrogen! Nel ASA, Pure Hydrogen, Plug Power, and Oklo

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News