Has PMT done with making its low ?.
From a weekly perspective, PMT had a small gain from 27 to 27.5. It played weak, last few days, made a new 52 week low of 24, but surprisingly came back strongly today to reach 28.5. Is the bounce enough to confirm that 24 can be its low for now?
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So what is happening in PMT? Based on what has happened in last few weeks, its played extremely weak. Within a very short period, it dropped from 40 to 24 - a drop of 40%. No major announcement. Just like that. And dropped more than most other ASX Li stocks. Why was that? I don't know. The only think I could think is that a big player/s wanted to get out of maybe PMT, maybe Li sector, and they caused this drop. I am not sure if another CR is in play. 75m was raised in May, so lets see
There are three major factors in play- Li macros - This is overall in hold state or getting better in US and China.
- ASX Li play - ASX Li stocks are now diverging from major plays of other jurisdiction, like ALB (US), Ganfeng (China). Although they are holding or gaining, ASX Li stocks are declining. Not sure why.
- PMT Play - At this stage I am not sure if announcement could help do something drastic, something very different from how other ASX Li stocks are playing. Or maybe I am not abreast, there could be a news in the offing. There was investment webinar, sometimes indicating a CR, but don't know
A combination of above 3 means its playing weak. How long will it play weak? ASX Li stocks have to close the divergence to plays of ALB/Ganfeng. And hope that they continue to hold or rise. ALB/Ganfeng are doing their job, but ASX Li stocks are not moving, maybe the risk appetite of ASX punters is different, and they may be more risk-averse, at least at this stage. That sentiment has to change. Till then we wait.
From numbers perspective, PMT needs to hold 24 now, if it goes down. Up, if it wants to go up, easy way till 34, before some struggle. So lets see.
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Now looking at other 2 stocks I talk and track, use it for providing direction -
Last 4 weeks play -
- Ganfeng - 5% gain Week 1, 5% gain week 2, 5% gain week 3, and 2% gain week 4 - current week - so overall a great play
- ALB - 2% gain week 1, 3% gain week 2, 5% gain week 3, and holding the level, down 0.3% in 4th week, but tonight yet to play - so again a very good play
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ASX Li stocks comparatively, very poorly. They are dropping, in recent weeks and clear divergence now. In this period from 1st Nov, last 4 week play, PLS has dropped from 289 to 239 - a drop of around 18%. LTR dropped from 81 to 73, around 10%, But most drops happened in last 2 weeks. LTR has now dropped from 91 to 73, around 20%. PLS from 327 to 239 - a drop of 27%. Both Ganfeng and ALB have gained in this period, handsomely. So the difference is stark.
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So what may happen next week? A very concerning play happening now in ASX arena. I first saw this with ASX Uranium stocks where clear divergence started happening for several weeks. Unfortunately even after couple of months, it has not rectified. ASX Li divergence started couple of weeks back. Early days but no signs yet that divergence will close. We can only hope that ALB/Ganfeng and Li macro keeps improving, and ASX Li stocks finally remove the divergence. Then we can see a decent rise happening. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best
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