Will 2025 bring back the Lithium stocks?.
Happy New Year to everyone. I was away for couple of weeks. Was hoping to see some change, but looks like another waiting game.
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A very forgettable year of PMT and nearly all Lithium stocks. I have last 2 years numbers below. Not a happy look, unfortunately, but better to know than ignore.
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For the year 2024, PMT lost around 64%. Average loss across 90 stocks was 43%. So on average, stocks lost at least half of their value (considering some were in green).
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This was third year in a row where most Li stocks had to face market wrath. In 2023, PMT gained 50%, one of the few stocks that really well. But this year fell to macro pressure and declined, from its high over 200s to below 25. But, its trying to make a comeback, finance. agreement etc.
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So based on probability one would think that this year could be the turning point. I can't fathom another year of such big losses. Its possible, but one would think this year we could either stabilise or reverse. We need Li macro including spot price to be favourable as well. There is so much accumulated losses that when it reverses, the gains could be massive. But there is an if. Lets hope it plays out that way.
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PMT needs something to happen. It went below 25 and was looking very miserable. The deal helped, gave a big bump. Brought it to play 40s instead of 20s. The question is - where will the next bump come from? Or is it now dependent only on Li macro?
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So what may happen next week? Another turmoil happening. In last one month Ganfeng has lost 20%, ALB as lost 20%, LTR has lost 20%. So there is a trend. We were all hoping that early September was the low. It looked for a while, but ASX Li stocks, which have been weakest, have broken below September lows.
.- Ganfeng after reaching 45, it was crucial to hold 37 level (50% up from it slows). Once it lost, it was probable that it may reach 30 (20% from its lows). It has reached 33, so it could happen. if it happens, next question would be whether it will hold or not. Its September low is 25.
- ALB after reaching 113, has lost 2 support levels, 104 and 92/94. I had written earlier that if 92/94 does not hold, it could reach 80. Its reached around 85, so it can happen. Same question, whether 80 will hold or not. Its September low is 72.
- LTR after reaching 95, has reached around 51. So again big test coming up.
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Best case scenario is that stocks hold, consolidate and then reverse from here. Lets hope it plays out that way.
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PMT is now trying to hold the 40 level. I am still not sure whether it will get another boost to carve its own path. That has been a saviour. But to hold 40, in current scenario may still be all right, lets see.
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Here are the numbers for last 2 years -
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(20min delay)