Very tentative start to 2025?.
PMT had a sedate start to 2025. It lost 2c, finishing on 38.5, last week was 40.5. Volume still on lower side, after the big burst on news.
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So what is happening in Li sector/stocks? After a tough last few years, 2025 has started very cautiously. No fireworks yet, but no capitulation as well. Ganfeng is around flat for the week, slightly down, ALB too flat, slightly down. PLS finished flat for the week as well. No major indication yet in which direction Li stocks want to go.
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PMT is now around 40 for last couple of weeks. On the news of VW it reached 43. Got out of its big downturn when it reached 24. This week all play around 40, reached 42.5. So looks like the big news has now been absorbed. Now playing the Li macro, like other Li stocks. Bit instead of playing mid 20s, around 40. . There have been moments when it looks like it will get out of this zone, as it reached 42.5, but at this stage Li macro is so strong that most stocks are not able to defy that. But it may be all right while Li macro is sorting itself. Hold this level, and if things change, have a big break. Downside, needs to hold this level, at least 37.
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So what will signify a positive play? ALB should regain 92/94. It reached there this week but could not hold. Ganfeng 37/38. Till these two don't happen, odds of going lower is slightly higher than going up. That's my reading based on previous plays, but I could be wrong, so please dyor.
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So what may happen next week? Very uncertain. Chinese stocks did a slightly higher slide this Friday afternoon. But this is not the first time. A lot of Friday's in NovDec, it was doing the same. Dropping decent on second half of Friday. It has continued 2025 by carrying its bad habit. So US markets, and ALB has a work cut out tonight. General markets also slightly iffy. It needs to hold 5/10% drop from its high. It is holding for now. ALB needs to hold this level so that its in striking distance of 92/94, otherwise it could drop below 80 first before regaining. It has gone near 85 few times in last week or two, but has held. Another test coming up tonight. I feel if ALB holds the 85 level, it will still be all right, around 88 hopeful, anything green, we could see Chinese markets coming back on a big green on Monday. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.
(20min delay)