Earlier this afternoon, Donald Rumsfeld came out with a statement saying that war in Iraq was not inevitable.
The most hawkish member of the Bush Cabinet is now quoting a line which ordinaril would have fallen to Secretary Powell, to enunciate.
Politically, this tells me the following: 1) the Administration is working something out behind the scenes; 2) a negotiated solution is nearing completion; and 3) this had something to do with the recent visit to Baghdad from several senior French and Middle Eastern officials.
War will not happen in Iraq. Not because it was doomed to fail. But because the presence of force in numbers has: 1) closed off a time gap that otherwise would have existed ie: between authorising and executing the authorised actions); 2) acted so far as an insurance policy to ensure that israel stayed out of the fray (ie: no pre-emptive behaviour, here); and 3) now provides the means of reinfocing the peace by ensuring that Iraq does not implode, or descend into chaos /civil war, the instant that Saddam exits from power, and the Republican Guards cease to function in an orderly manner.
Regime change will soon occur, and a Federalist State will eventually emerge, along ethnic and /or ethno-religious lines, most probably in about 18m to 2 years time.
Meantime, the significant level of stockpiling of relief and recovery supplies in strategic forward staging positions throughout the world also tells me that a significant recovery /rebuilding effort will soon be under way.
And, who will pay for all of this?
Some of the cost will be borne by the international community of nations.
The more significant Middle East nations will also share Part of the burden.
And, Iraq's oil will be used to pay for some of the recovery effort whereas previously much of this wealth was diverted into the hands of the political elite, and into the military (as opposed to the average Iraqi citizen).
