I dunno, tradertcb.I'm trying to second guess the psychology of...

I dunno, tradertcb.

I'm trying to second guess the psychology of the market, of course, and I just can't see people wanting to sell at 33c when their purchase was so very recent and the pay-off is so very close (can't we all just taste it?)

I really think the worst case is a SP languishing at around the 35-36 AFTER Longtom comes on line. If that happens I guess we either sell out and look elsewhere for a short-term gain, or we wait for something to develop with Crux.

At present, though, I reckon that a drop in SP before an announcement would indicate a real loss of confidence in the stock - and I think anybody that uncertain was probably weeded out in the recent buying frenzy. Surely if they wanted out they wouldn't wait for a further fall to 33c before selling? And if they are expecting price recovery they won't sell anyway.

As for buyers, the leveling off in volume suggests to me that 35.5 is about the best buyers can expect. I admit to being pretty conservative on these things so that colours my opinion. Given that bias I think if I had the money to buy (and I would if I could) I personally wouldn't be haggling over the 2.5 cents given that an imminent announcement might (stress "might") send the SP well up.

So, my guess is that most of those still holding are thinking of a post-Longtom sale in the hope of either minimising losses or maximising gains (depending on how you look at it!). And I'm thinking that very few of these folks would consider a sub 40c sale prior to an announcement, so I don't think we'll see enough volume to significantly move the SP until then.

This all assumes, of course, that the stability of the last couple of days indicates that things have more or less found their level - it feels to me a bit like a calm before a storm. Just hoping the storm is a big one when and if it comes!