Yes . . . the SP has been flat compared to its peers. I think the reason for that was for the accumulation of sufficient capital to proceed with block caving without the need for a CR . . . that way Shagang does not dilute their holding. Also production for the past several years has been at maximum output of around 2.4 MT . . . that limits SP growth. BUT once block cave is in production phase there will be a massive catch up / passing of its peers because block cave will:
1. significantly increase output
2. significantly reduce production costs
3. significantly increase mine life.
Also I feel very confident that GRR will not be affected by any trade war because:
1. Shagang's original investment in GRR transpired at the bequest of the Chinese Communist Party for steel makers to secure and invest in overseas sources.
2. GRR's pellets are a cut above the rest and make high grade steel . . . such remarks have been made by both Bluescope and Shagang.
3. Also at the moment China is chasing as much steel as they can get their hands on to complete infrastructure such as the direct rail link to a deep water port in Burma that will handle 160,000 tonne (double current) bulk shipping to transport iron ore from their recently aquired high grade, bountiful leases in Guinea which is being fast tracked to come into production by 2024 or sooner . . . at that time iron ore mining in Australia will become a boutique industry . . . and I don't like FMG's chances of sourcing alternate markets such as Thailand or Vietnam as they have joined the belt and road and will jump when China says so.
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