When the boat comes in???, page-782

I'd anticipate the challenge in terms of GRR shipments maybe during Q2 based on past few years. Thus I'm not assuming Q2 could be 10 ships rather 5-6 ships as a base case. There is a traditional annual GRR shutdown / maintenance programs which may reduce Q2 by 4-5 weeks or one-third. The flip side is latest Brazil and Vale supply issues are being again impacted by rain and the ongoing regulatory issues with dams etc. The increase in shipments this quarter could offset lower Q2 shipments. IMO the GRR Q1 pellet shipment volume may exceed 700k mt therefore with robust pellet premium and 65% FE IO prices there should be good scope for strong financial and operational outcomes for 3 months to 31 March 2020 with heighten level of cash flow and receivables in the current quarter. I'd also suggest the 31 Dec 2019 receivables forecast may be converted to cash by 31 January 2020. DYOR.