Questions I am asking myself about AGO. Re: Rail deal? It sure...

Questions I am asking myself about AGO.

Re: Rail deal? It sure is NOT in the share price today. Anyway, it all depends on the deal and terms for AGO. So why factor something in to your analysis that you have zero ability to predict. Assume it doesn't happen.

Is Atlas cash flow positive from operations this month and quarter? Yes and Yes

FY14 is about to end and will Atlas be in Net Debt or cash? I think Net Cash = $26m.

18 months ago  (10 December 2012) Atlas entered into a Term Loan B facility of US$275
http://www.atlasiron.com.au/irm/content/annualreport2013/files/assets/basic-html/page109.html

Did management expected this to be used for 12Mt expansion, has it? No, so a good outcome in 18mths.

Does DA and accounting losses/profits? Not really, cash flows do.

Net Tangible Assets NTA = $1.67, will there be write downs? Likely, but the share price has factored this in at 61 cents. Even a 50% write down gives us 84. I am not smart enough to work it out or have enough information in the financials and notes. Does it matter, no cash flows do.

Will grade discounts continue forever? Very unlikely I think.

Will China's unprofitable domestic production fall next quarter? Everyone seems to think it will, they all could be wrong of course. If over the next 6 months Iron Ore averages $US95 then... It has only been 3 and half weeks below $100 after all.

Will the currency go to parity with Iron Ore in the 90's? I don't think so. Glen Stevens might say something about that. His AFR interview in Dec sort of said 85-95 if I remember. Where were Iron ore prices then.