It's a good question and have been doing some reading the past...

It's a good question and have been doing some reading the past few weeks to get a better understanding. LOL....in the meantime I have missed a load of SP action.

The way I understand it using basic language is that you can get it now. Typically imported more than sourced locally. That's where CAN jump in.

From what I have read the TGA have not approved cannabis for any indications (therapeutic use) . So your doctor wont be writing a script for treatment of your eg. arthritis etc anytime soon.

But if the doctor wants to become an authorised prescriber then they can see that you gain access. They need to ensure their application is supported by a HREC or endorsed by a specialist college...all in conjunction with the states health department (which in itself maybe suggests the infancy of all this as there isnt a national approach...though i have not yet looked into whether they differ or how they may differ)

So not a  straightforward process , and its far more complicated in the detail than i have spelled out as i belive the authorised prescriber is responsible for the import etc.(CAN will lower the boundaries here)..but there is still loads of burden with regards to dosages, frequency, monitoring of the patient etc.

I read this and i get headaches....http://www.tga.gov.au/access-medicinal-cannabis-products-steps-using-access-schemes

So based on the above I can't see how there is going to be meaningful revenue to support the crops, r&d, processing, trials and filings all with new facilities without lots more folding stuff. Let alone business and increasing SP until there are some approved indications that allows far simpler prescriptions to be filled.

To this end i read on the NSW health departments site there are trials  kicked off and recruiting for a pallatative trial about 1 yr ago for vaporised flower bud and also chemotherapy induced nausea. Dont know the players in those trials but de-risks some of the activities CAN will need to be following.  There is also some epilepsy with Epidiolex. I have been looking at GW Pharma to gauge timelines and indications...though not sure its the best example but it is an example.

So until CAN tell me more about their target formulations and associated indications....You would have to put it at 5+ years for a formulation to get through trials, regulatory submissions and launched into the market.

I suppose if they look at what others have done and  leverage some of that science to get through their early product for indications where there is solid science then 5 years goes from what i would call unrealistically aggressive to achievable.

But this excludes the whole speculative aspect...or what  bigger player thinks their licences are worth long term, or what an established drug player with logistics and marketing (good partnership synergies) thinks of CAN and any deal they may do.

I am only new to the company and sector so trying to get my head around what fundamentals the solid 6 month price increase has been based upon. So far the above is what I have pieced together...not sure this isnt going to calm and drop when ppl realise the timelines around getting any real volume of product in market. Not to mention the cost of any product given that I read Sativex is about USD16,000 per year so its going to need the support of insurers and PBS if anyone is going to be able to afford it!!!!