After reading / listening to most of the material on IBG over the last couple of years, I’m of the thinking that they are going to try to take this into production.
The reasoning behind this is as follows:
1) The interviews and market release material is always about being on site in June 2022. If there is a “Senior” partner Im not sure that would be as up front as it is. Also points below will correlate that.
2) The EXIM loan means buying in US services. An EPCM (US of course) managed by the board and a “to be hired” senior management team would be ideal. It doesn’t have to be that big to manage the process. There are any number of EPCM capable entities in the US, a few of which operate in mining in Aus too.
3) MJ talks about a staged Equity piece in a couple of releases/interviews. That would make sense as the ramp up, as Yatchy noted, would need civils up front but there would be a necessary delay (weather) and staged events for other deliverables. This would be planned in by the EPCM and they would manage the delivery piece. So the pressure is in short sharp months with planning, supply chain, design and prep (off site) in development for the on-site seasons.
4) The Greenlanders have been having staff trained for mining activities in the US. So there will be a start up force there. Weather happy and ready to go.
So as to the question of when does the SP lift? Well MJ alludes to a January to June process tied in with the EXIM loan finalisation.
I think there will be an announcement soon on a partner to fund the following stages:
The hiring and development work to hit site in June, this for internal and external management including EPCM.
Then subsequently downstream funding requirements through to mine operation. This will be developed with the stage 1 announcement and EXIM due diligence will be tied into that development works.
The key as I see it, will be “can they get to site by June?”
On the first announcement, which underpins all of the other releases and stages, should see the SP start to go up quite quickly.
I don’t think it was helped by the cap raise, but as others have noted, I think it was a necessity.
Finally, and as I have noted in the past, the two additions to the board, if giving this away to an equity “giant”, would be superfluous and a waste of collateral. If they intend to go it alone, as I have indicated above, the funding, which is convoluted and staged over large increments of time and the dealings with Greenland, poss Danish, US and Australian entities are where those two roles come in.
Also, I think a few people will be happily playing this share at these low levels. At least until an announcement comes along this month or next (probably this, as there isn’t much time).
All IMO - Happy New Year and let’s hope this month sees a bit of upward momentum. God knows we’ve been here long enough and it’s good to see the board taking the bill by the horns, so to speak
(20min delay)