Roch.
Simply quoting made up stuff won’t support the share price. 90% of what you have posted is either factually incorrect or factually misinterpreted. You have been reported before for this on many, many occasions. Please stop posting “your facts” which are misinterpretations of what is actually happening.
What you don’t realise (or perhaps you do: which would be a plot twist) is that when you constantly post stuff like this it actually scares punters away from MAY. And slandering anyone who disagrees with your random numbers further undermines your cause.
The price is the price. The market price (and market cap) is the “as at now” value that the general population puts on MAY. $240 market cap with $40 million in the bank means that they value the project(s) - on a “risked” basis - at $200 million (in present value terms). And given the discount factors, that equates to around $400 million of net P&L over the life of the drill(s) (assuming a 15 year recovery, etc.) which is a $1.33 billion net P&L for the whole project (MAY @ 30%). And given the other Cuban costs and recoveries, the net P&L per barrel is “about” U$20 (I saw someone on here the other day assuming that the recovery was 100% - which is impossible!). So working that number backwards, that implies around 67 million barrels recovered - which from the net pay they are taking about, is “roughy” 25% (67/267). This tells you that the current “market risk” factor for this drill is 25% (a factor of 0.25) which is “about right” (pre-spud, but with previous shows but one unknown interval etc.).
What you are arguing, in fact, is that the market is wrong. You are saying that the market should be 15 to 20 cents, or, put another way, around 2 to 2.5 times higher than it currently is. In other words, a factor of around 0.625. That would be a “very strong” pre-spud number, particularly 6-8 weeks out from a drill. If we were one day out, yes - the number would be higher than 0.25 (maybe 0.50 even); but to constantly and consistently claim that you have the utter brilliance to outwit and outthink the market is quite bizarre.
Yes: the SP may go up (and probably will). But to think that it is a straight line shows that you have never traded shares before. NOTHING goes in a straight line, and TA attempts to explain some of the patterns you may witness on your trip from A to B. It does not go against fundamentals, it works alongside it. To argue that TA and FA are someone “mortal enemies” shows total lack of understanding about how markets work.
So please refrain from seagulling everyone’s comments (flying in and sh**ing all over them). It is not smart, not funny, and not appreciated.
Regards
Kit
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