First, to your original comment "ARB may indeed be over priced". Well yes, it may indeed be. But anyone that has remotely followed ARB in the last few years, knows that it has always looked expensive. So this news flash is a little like: "Excessive alcohol consumption may kill you.".
True. The key word is may.
Secondly, when I see someone offering a valuation to 4 significant figures, I usually stop reading at that point.
Thirdly, where did the inputs for the DCF come from? Was a crystal ball consulted?
Fourthly, if a crystal ball was not consulted, then how could the valuer distil all future factors (GDP growth, demographics, consumer spending, export success, interest rates, competitor behaviour etc, etc) to one single number?
Fifthly, there is the question of what value actually is. If I am buying a business with a view to offloading it onto the market ASAP, then I may need to use a concept of value that I believe will accord with the general market (if such a thing even exists). However, if I intend to hold onto the business for dear life, then the value to me is the cash that the business can generate for me. The value I attach to that cash may be different from yours. And who knows what the "independent valuer" may desire.
ARB Price at posting:
$17.71 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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