It probably is, in principle, a little bizarre to hold a stock one considers to be over priced. But then, some businesses are particularly special. I don't mean this in a sentimental sense, but from a valuation perspective. ARB is one of those special, and very rare businesses, that have a supremely deep moat (in ARB's case, mainly the strength of the brand). The power ARB has over its customers is phenomenal. This means ARB has been able to reinvest its earnings (it retains about 50% of its earnings) at very high rates of return - for an extended period, and over various economic/industry cycles.
The value of a business that can achieve this for extended periods (decades) is very hard to quantify. 50% of ARB's earnings do not hit my pocket. That's great, because that means I pay no tax on them
and even more importantly, they are being reinvested for me (tax free) at 20% rates of return (even while I sleep). Allow a few years to elapse, and the compounding effect of that is quite phenomenal.
And given the character, culture, and the emotional and financial stake of the management, I believe this will continue for a long time to come. If ARB had the brand but more pedestrian management, it would still be extremely valuable. However, combine the brand with the management, and you hit a special sweet spot.
Then there is the fact that if I sold my shares I would be hit with a very large capital gains tax. But yes, I have thought long and hard about whether or not I should deploy my capital more productively elsewhere. For example, at the post below, I was asking this very question:
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/16832788/single
I'm not concerned about driverless vehicles at all. Whilst I expect society will move away from the grid-lock inducing, onerous hum drum of expensive vehicle ownership and usage, as it currently exists
for practical purposes (especially for the daily commute), I do not see a massive change in the way we approach leisure and lifestyle (not in my lifetime). Whether the 4WD is electric, gas or nuclear, I think we will still have off road vehicles. And as long as the owners want to go along for the ride (rather than sending their driverless vehicles on people-less jaunts, to, say, Cape York), I think they will be as excited as ever about their ARB gear. In fact, all that money people save by not having a car for daily commute, they will probably spend on their weekend and leisure vehicles. But that's crystal ball stuff, so who knows.
(20min delay)