very good post YC - all very valid and well made points, and...

very good post YC - all very valid and well made points, and don't disagree.

However, the other way to look at the whole scenario is through China Inc's eyes at a time when phosphate internal supply within China will start to become higher cost/marginal production, will begin to rely on imports (peak phosphate within China), you are facing a potential step change in food costs and supply disruptions - ad foo security scares does not down well in a communist society.

The picture I'm trying to paint is that with strategically important minerals (such as phosphate/potash/fertiliser), China Inc (via it' SOE's) may not behave like rational western investors, and just take a large stake in a compay just to sure long term supply.

Case in point - look a the coal sector and also the strategic stakes being taken in so called juniors not even in production yet.

And diversification of supply whe you have a virtual duopoly of major supplies in OCP, Vale/Bunge and the US via Mosaic - could also be a important part of the decision making proces......

time will tell though...