where are we now?

Clearly a very poor performance by bmn of late. Driven by a number of factors:
- concern over near term U price,
- market very jittery so retail weighted stocks under more pressure,
- limited news flow

Having checked todays trading as have facility after markets closes was very retail dominated again. BMN has been a big under-performer and retail register not helping at all. It was retail selling so do not believe at all related to any change in company position other than selling creates more selling with retail.

I did speak to company last week and think the email posted last week reflects where things are at. More instos have entered register at expense of retail although dont expect them to support price with flow of retail stock into their hands. This will bottom when retail has capitulated...hard to say if we have reached this point.

I know the big money still thinks this is a key global U project. Have been great on engineering less so on market PR which has hurt. If we look at other projects have yet to release independent costing although expect bmn can get to low to mid 30s on opex once it has been optimised.

A key global comparison in Forsys. Has significant less lbs with lower grade and higher opex so why a valuation over A$300m. Simply that markets are not always efficient on a global basis and as said before bmn is traded by retail and priced on sentiment rather than true fundamentals. I am not saying it wont fall further as may well given sentiment. I can hear people say if that is so why would instos not be rushing in? Why should they? At the moment the market dynamics are they can pick-up stock cheap and no need to be aggressive. The key deal makers are govt utilities but they only do agreed company deals that take time so irrespective of their view on value wont buy on-market. Believe BMN is working this angle hard but cant just put out announcements because share price has fallen.

Ultimately if you dont believe in long term U story stay away from bmn. If you do cant get much better leverage to this story. You dont want to be love with a stock but objectively believe this is great long term value. As always DYOR!