Where are we on a deal?, page-1420

Thanks Ceviche.

You also have been with us for a decent amount of time, you have shown a lot of patience and you have written about some good financial considerations in the past.

When I stop and think about it, though it is possible and I can't totally rule it out, there at least seems to me, to be no way, that PAR could raise enough money on market utilising another, mass market CR.

The only thing it would do is kick the can down the road some more and buy them time.

With some $25 m in the bank currently, they can continue burning minimal cash and draw it out for a while, while they search for a funder.

Nah I think they are confident of securing some sort of other financing. Again, I could be quite wrong!
No doubt there is a ceiling. but also a base, look at how the SP has been trading for the last few weeks,




Holders are torn between the two.

Do we sell, do we buy...knd of a stalemate atm.

A few have called me recently and have said, Mozz mate, aren't you worried? Aren't we going to be soon diluted all the way to hell? hahah

No...I say to them that while it's not impossible, I think the money is on, finally, a decent financial package. Yes of course Im not daft, even that WILL be dilutive, but not nearly as dilutive as the usual wide scale issuing of shares on market immediately.

I tell them that the hardest part is over. They sound quizzical at that statement. They wonder what I'm talking about.

I tell them that that 2x2 dosing certainty was the single biggest headache and fear for us. If that didn't get ratified and approved, we would be dead in the water. The 1 x 2 signal wasn't strong enough. Maybe we could've limped it in, maybe we could've gone bankrupt.

We not only got that hurdle thru last year, though it didn't take weeks...it took months...not 2 months....but ages.
I was sweating and waiting....and more waiting.


Then we also had to wait for the draft protocol feedback. That also took bloomin' ages.

I was wiping off cobwebs at the end of every month. Watching grass grow was an exciting time pass for me while I waited...





Brother, how long to go?



But you know what? We made it.

Oh we so made it Ceviche.

We not only got a pass thru...the FDA sanctioned our 008 sightings to be incorporated into our P3..

Now let me remind you (the others)...this wasn't a quick process...it added a full YEAR to our pre P3 program start.

Mozz....was it worth waiting for a full year?

Oh yes it was...why?

Because of three reasons that I choose to call major reasons:

1) INCREASED LABEL POTENTIAL

Do we care if we get to add a couple more paragraphs to that super thin paper that goes in the little box with our Auto Injector? Who the heck reads all the fine print and suggested use and who to contact if you got questions?





Who reads this?


I'll tell you who reads this....

The Doctors.

Yep...the all powerful AMA...they are guided by what the label says.

Let me just express to you that if that label contains even just CONNOTATIONS of structural sightings that have regressed even in a fraction of patients in the P3...we're done....so done, in a good way....because 2) will result...



2. PENETRATION

What am I talking about?

Paradigm buddies...if iPPS attracts even 3% of the market, the numbers are bezzerko for us.

Example please....



Sure


Lets get our 12 digit calculators out...

Follow me on this one

31 million Americans and about double that Europeans (let's leave everyone else out for the moment)....equates to 90 million possible patients.

Let's take a TINY 3% penetration with only pain and function.

That's 31 million for USA plus 2 x 31 million for Europe= 93,000,000

Now take just 3% of this...thats 2,790,000 patients.

They (see Point three below) will pay some $3000 USD to try iPPS.

Mate, thats is $8.37 Billion!

My mate (Man from the East) says I gotta use a PE of about 50....I refuse, I use 20.

Right, stick with me on this one...

To back calculate our share price we need three (known/assumed) variables to give us the unknown...

A) The Revenue
B) The number of shares
C) The PE Ratio



A) I am assuming revenue is the 8.37 B

B) We have circa 400 mil shares on issue, I'm increasing it by a full 50% for any and all future dilution, there will be some dilution, just the exercising of those future Loyalties and the hopefully Golden Piggies will add to the dilution...it's a good problem for us to have if we get them into the money.

C) My mate says PE ratio of 50 for a decently growing co., I say and use just 20...now we can work out our theoretical SP.

Let's do it.


8.37 Big ones, divided by 600 million shares gives me $13.95.

I multiply this by 20....


Crazy.

I get $279 per share.

Now sure, we aint going to get that ...

Why?
Because we will only get a royalty as we have partnered up.

So that's like 15% maybe 20%, lets go 12% cos I'm a believer of this UPOD stuff


Guys, 20% of 279 is still $55.80

I would halve this and I would say it is at least 3 years after we have our first dollar of revenue to be safe.


There is one more thing I haven't factoried in...the above is in $USD. I'm leaving it at that.
Remember that bit about the royalty right? I'm also not factoring in the fact that if we get a royalty for a larger region, they are going to pay us up fronts AND milestones, this will also be highly accretive to the ol' 30 cent share price.

Now remember that I have used a ridiculously low 3% uptake factor. We show we are safe, we pass the P3...we have DM sightings that have bene upgraded to secondaries which mean THEY GO ONTO THE LABEL...you ain't going to get just 3% of the market....



Helllllloo...is there anyone mildly positive on this?

Where are you Hutsy, you gotta print me one of the T shirts for me saying Go PAR after a few years...





Now I can't give you advice, I'm not at all accredited. But I can say...Im licking me lips right now as I type this.
Is there risk, yes you bet. If we don't get adequate funding we aint moving...we will sink quicker than that large ship that sank back in 1912...


Help!


Remember, there is still risk, we have to jump a few more hurdles, not least of all getting thru a P3 and getting funding.


3) The insurers will get a sense of this raw potential, they will do their own calcs, it won't be like me on the back of an envelope or on a single HC post. Remember, the patients will have insurance. the insurers will pay and cover iPPS as it saves and delays surgery which is the real expensive procedures for them and its growing at incredible rates over the years.

These payers will have entire databases and analysts, market experts and actuaries at their disposal to come up with DCF'ed figures that drive figures out more conservatively that an old farmer on a Massey Ferguson Tractor from the 50's on a rural back road...



Let's go

.

But, they still will come out with a suitably impressive future figure.
We just need to attract one of them to fund us.












Above is not advice. Optimistic statements, PAR.AX is deemed to be speculative.