Where are we on a deal?, page-6

A lot to unpack in another good post from you Dungiven.

I think I could write paragraphs in response.

Overall I agree with you, it's getting closer to the time we need some results in the Commercial sense, the funding sense.

A couple of points if I can, they aren't in argument, merely wondering feasibility/probability etc.

I dunno if it is Black and White with the funding. I think there are alternatives that might be partly dilutive, it could be like a hybrid where its a mix of maybe some commercial party, perhaps some equity and some that represents a staged debt facility?

All I'm saying is that there might be a possibility that it's a mix? At the end of the day you could say some dilution is going to be necessary. Yes a Commercial Deal is a good way to go and is not as dilutionary...but I'm just saying there could be other alternatives too if a massive deal isn't forthcoming immediately.


I also agree that PAR haven't done a sterling job in UPOD, however, in my view, PAR did give a rough idea based on the intel they had at the time which was that the FDA would take around 3 months to get back with the feedback. This did not happen, the FDA took a lot longer than three months to get back to PAR. This had a material impact on timelines.

Par had no option but to wait...and ask (a lot of times) for an update.



Data Room (DR)

Yeah PAR will hold this one closer to their chests. They won't want anyone to really know how many and what magnitude the parties are that have, are or will go thru this room despite the fact that one going thru such a room at a given point of time is a critical part of a given deal. What I mean by that is there are a number of moving parts here, the DR is just one of them. The events of the last few months and indeed data from 008 was a big enough change to the entire process and potential of the asset we have.

Parties that have gone thru the room a year ago may now feel differently about us and vice versa. So much water has gone under the bridge and I personally think it's a lot of good water...water that should be valued more. Yes, yes I get that we need funding and we can't be too choosy. But it also means we aren't going to just give it away to any backyard operator. A powerful drug like ours has to be at least somewhat commensurate with a partner and/or quality funder.


There is only ONE instance that I can remember in all of the pressons and AGM's and the like...I might have forgotten some statement PR might have said in one of the many interviews he had in regards to a DR, but I can't recall any other instance, but below is reproduced the only official one time I can remember or indeed find.

The below extract occurred at the last AGM, data room highlighted in orange. The below would've been fairly close to actual words stated but I reserve the right to have written it down slightly incorrectly/not verbatim. Someone else that was there at this meeting can verify/correct.



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Question:
Has there been interest in our OA asset in Europe and US?

Paul - Simple answer is yes we have had interest. We have tried to avoid partnering too early in the USA. We understand the price is very high in the US, we have tried to go up the value curve as much as we can without partnering, we don't want to leave too much on the table and go too early, it is our key asset. We have not done the outreach that Beverley spoke about in China, in the USA, but we have had inbound inquiries as a result of our data that has been published.

There is a mid tier pharm co thats in the OA space, they are chasing us regularly for updates and they are in our data room and have signed a confidentiality agreement. But we believe there is probably more opportunity out there and probably at the start of next year as we get the P3 program up and running again. We will reach out to other US pharma companies. Yes we do have interest in Europe, again we haven't pursued that because again most of the people in the US market also want to get rights in the European market. Because they are the two big markets. So we tried to preserve the value in that but not doing a deal in those areas for as long as possible and we are concerned if we do a deal too early there will be too much value on the table for the partner.

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I'm not sure it's a bad thing if there are a few parties that have been thru the data room and yet we don't have a deal....is it concerning? Not as much for me as I reckon they are indeed waiting for the final GO. Why are they waiting for it, because the goal posts have changed....a lot.

No longer are we 002 Stage 2.
We are 012.

Mozz, the numbers changing isn't a reason for these guys to stall.

Yeah I mean Duration has been added, n has been tinkered with, and that's just what we know. There were comments (plural) that the FDA got back to us with, we know monitoring has changed and stats have changed. This will influence what the funders or BP looks at and the valuation proposition, timelines etc. It will be hard for anyone to make a deal until they have in writing what the FDA want and what is approved. This is only my personal opinion, do not be reliant on it. I might be totally wrong.


Yes I know that communication can be suitably amped up. But I do believe they will inform us in detail once they are ready, finalised and we genuinely know what the forward plan is.






DYOR