Here it is claimed that Camelwood by itself is not commercial.
"....whilst not a commercial discovery, it did spark a market cap growth (for ROX) from $7 million to $58 million in February 2013". ASX : RXL
However an examination of the SIR chart shows Feb 2013 was when SIR did its second jump from $2 to $5 and it is conceivable that the market was over-reacting to all nickel finds.... in the hyped atmosphere.
If indications are that "something" good (as per what happened with ROX) is found for MPJ, then could MPJ now at around $7m MC also go to $58m MC, just as Rox did on such positive news?? It... could... which is not to say it will.
If it did, it would be an 8 bagger from 0.6c say SP = 0.6 x 58/7 = 5.0c
Then the MPJO's would be worth about 5.0c - 1.0c = 4.0c or a 20 bagger! from 0.2c
Then again with the MPJO's if holes 1 - 9 show nothing (except what was in hole 1) then there is the prospect of doing all your money... whereas the MPJ's you retain something. Even with 18 months to run on the options.
There may well be other cases of nickel finds to look at. This is just one, in order to get a feel.
That always assumes that you sell at the peak, in order to get that return, which you never do.!! If you can sell at say half the peak, leave a bit for someone else, then that is agreeable I believe. Personally I would be happy with 4 or 5 times for a brief MPJ investment, and something more for options. For a good nickel find.
The ROX example shows what the MPJ SP movement is potentially capable of... in a very roughly similar situation.
Of course if they hit another Sirius Nova then all bets are off, but my understanding is this is not that sort of geological structure.?... but I am always open to be educated. I would love someone to demonstrate that MPJ could be a 100-bagger potentially... but....
I would be happy with 4 or 5 times my investment for the MPJ's in the event of a Find, and 8 or 9 times for the MPJO's, being higher risk. If I could do that I would be delighted... but everyone has different circumstances and risk/return requirements.
Anyway... that provides some perspective on the SP.... using a broad case study and not just plucking guesses. It is basic but gives at least some idea as a start point.
If anyone has any other ideas on it, that would be good to hear.
MPJ Price at posting:
0.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
