where do we stand, page-3

I've gone through the numbers again regarding where we stand with regards to Singapore. My last calculations were really a bit vague because they didn't take into account the change in exchanges rates between the end of 2006 and now for example.

Firstly we need to calculate what the Gross Profit of the plant in Singapore was projected to be. Firstly using the figures in the original prospectus and working in American Dollars:

Sale price of 680* million litres of Biodiesel
at 71* cents a Litre is US $483 million

Cost of 680* thousand tonnes of Palm Oil
at $495* dollars a tonne is US $337 million

Gross Profit is therefore US $146 million

And at the 75* cents to the Australian Dollar
Gross Profit is therefore $A 195 million


Now the next step is a bit trickier. We don't have an estimate for the earnings for 12 months, but we do have the projected earnings for the six months ending June 2008, and we can multiply this by 2

$A 89* million x 2 is approx $A 178 million

So the cost to run for 12 months is therefore $A 17 million


Now calculate using current prices

Sale price of 680* million litres of Biodiesel
at 92** cents a Litre is US $626 million

Cost of 680* thousand tonnes of Palm Oil
at $880*** dollars a tonne is US $598 million

Gross Profit is therefore US $28million

And at the current 92 cents to the Australian Dollar
Gross Profit is therefore $A 30 million

Assume increased costs to $A 20 million

Net Profit from Biodiesel is $A10 million over 12 months


But pharmaceutical grade Gylcerine is worth $1000****, instead of US $466.80*, so we could, based on 64* thousand tonnes, add an extra $ US34 million to the result or $ A37 million

BUT assume another $ 7 million to cover increased costs for Methanol and others ...


EBITDA = $35 million Aussie Dollars for a full 12 month Calendar year
Which is about 10 cents per share



* All these figures are in the original prospectus
** See AAE's Quarterley Report where they quote $3.50 per US gallon
*** NFL Quarterley Report
**** NFL Annual Report 2007