If revenue guidance can be believed, on a conservative $800m revenue, I see EBITDA between 104-112m. Net of capex, this would give the company $45-50m free cash flow to pay down debt.
Net debt (excluding RPS) is circa $350m, less the $40m that will be repaid in current FY = $308m
Net debt $308m / EBITDA (midpoint) $108m = 2.85, which slightly above its previous target but below its newly negotiated covenants.
That revenue/ebitda I have used is fairly conservative. And BKN has a fairly strong NTA position.
For the life of me, I can't see why the market is in panic over BKN at this point. But I hope they continue to panic more so I can add even cheaper.
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If revenue guidance can be believed, on a conservative $800m...
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