Not sure if I qualify as a long term holder but I have stepped...

Not sure if I qualify as a long term holder but I have stepped backed from commenting on 4DS as much since I came to the conclusion we can only see 0.00001% of what is going on so making predictions has the same likelihood of success as predicting power ball numbers each draw for a year.

Anyway for old times sake here are some thoughts :

1) Expect another platform lot. A couple of million spent at IMEC is chump change if it increases competition for a sale in the billions. Platform lots provide data to open doors - cells don't. Dr Van said they would keep developing because that is the nature of technology - stop & you get left behind. The next batch might be closer to potential acquirers taste. But there will be a next batch.

2) JD is not back "openly" in daily contact to help work out how to scale technology down below 60nm. He is there to sell the technology. This is the biggest tell that a sale process is imminent. Dave dropping the "interim" from Chairperson title was also noteworthy.

3) Guido selling shares is a non event whether its because he thinks like an engineer, is risk adverse or just needed a bit of cash. He has previously acted in ways that are not in his immediate financial interest (pay cut, stood down from CEO, exercised options before expiry etc). Him & Dave have a relationship that extends over a decade. It's pure speculation, but I think Guido will get looked after (aka gentlemen's agreement) whether it's additional performance options or a greater slice of the Sales Bonus Pool (currently only 25% is allocated in annual report - 15% Guido / 10% Ting. Remaining 3-4 employees could not get more than Ting). Setting & altering remuneration policy is the sole domain of the Board so they can pretty much do what they like with the Bonus Pool.

4) Expect Dave to sell shares. Spreading risk (cashing out for next investment) is how he has stayed in the start up game for 2 decades. That said if he doesn't that would be a strong indication that the end is near.

5) Dave's comments that there is billion dollar ASX listed companies at the same stage as us should not be overlooked. This tells me that his expectation is that any sale would be at a premium to this amount ( ie market price is discounted by risk) . A $1 per share is pretty conservative in this scenario.

6) I wonder if there was a plan to encourage option holders to exercise for a explicit purpose (ie we already knew we needed some cash) . Dave seemed pretty confident they would. Perhaps Guido exercised to help out.

Enjoy the weekend .... likelihood of any of the above being accurate is about the same as Wallabies winning the world cup. DYOR.