HopefuloneI have said this before. I am ultra bearish and part...

Hopefulone

I have said this before. I am ultra bearish and part of the Hedgie camp. The only reason why I do not hold any short positions at the moment is the retirement of the SFP program in the US. So I need to wait another 8 weeks.

a) The UK and Europe will have to raise rates soon. Both central banks have unlike the US no mandate to look after employment. So right now the 'let's just concentrate on the core inflation' thing might be enough to delay it. But it will come.

b) The US states are broke. Budget deficits of Texas, California and Illinois make Greece and Ireland look like financial angels. They will have no other choice then to raise taxes or ask Ben to monetize it.

On a day like today it is hard to convince people that the party might come to an end soon and I don't expect any thumps up for this post. But regardless of what action is taken by the Chinese, US or European governments, I will be watching these retail figures like a hawk.