You are correct it is Demand and supply. No mater what the cause the impact will be the same on Lynas. This is far bigger than 1 ~ 3 month lamp shutdown. Who cares what is causing price fall? Every investor has to manage for it.
The vey fact that concentrate, Oxides, Metals and magnets are all falling says it has a wide base and will last a while. Still don't think NdPr will go much lower but it is at a level that will realy hurt Lynas in Q4. and FY 2023. Only thing that will help is if Q3 & Q4, can produce near NEXT rates. That is still only a 12 % increase in volume Vs a 50% drop in price.
Where is it going from here?, page-6
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