vale now, vale in 3 years, your comment lacks relevance due to the time you're discussing.
Ridley makes up 1% of my folio and is in the high risk section, if 0.001 doesn't tempt anyone, I don't know what will.
what happens after a construction boom, you guys are missing the demand side, and the supply side with relevance.
demand side, China actually looking a decreasing its steel Production, CCP have made clear indications of emissions sanctions, during this period you have conversion from blast furnaces to electric furnaces.
Africa is toast when it comes to iron ore, been following that for a while, even China about to back out, all becoming to much for them, and Rio trying to get out aswell. Sammandou isn't a problem.
south flank 145mt P.A expansion available vale 400mt P.A expansion available
never write of Brazil, they're half the reason we have strong IO prices. the dam collapse is bad, very bad, it hurt consumer confidence, investors, ect ect the ripples went world wide, but there is massive amounts of funding already flowing in to get vale back to an even stronger beast.
I had a few posters talking about bhp and fmg building new mines that only replace old ones, that's actually fundamentally incorrect, the only BHP section to close soon is yandi1 which is a micro plant compared to the rest.
they're being built to fill the void for closures in the FUTURE, not now, these mines thag bhp, Rio, fmg, bhp, Roy hill own have deposits that last decades and trust me, I've seen them flog them for 60+ years like bhp with whaleback I have been to to over 20 inland and outload sites of the majors.
then you have a shit tonne of juniors doing DSO 1mt, you have America just realising their need to produce magnetite and they know there is billions of tonnes in Nevada, which is already now being tapped but to 1% of capacity of the future, then you have Canada who is becoming another emerging producer along with South Africa.
then you now have to look at the demand side, what happened last time we had a construction boom, you then had a swift lul after, which correlates with deflation. money will flow back into travel. oil macros such as lithium will then take a much higher ride.
this further supports macro cycles, it's just how the world moves, demand is made, supply catches up and over bears demand, supply drops off, demand increases, supply catches up, it's an endless cycle.
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