where is our prophet nt!, page-2

re: the tipping point is nigh? Thanks for the lead Kwehrend!

The great thing about Anvil as a company is the technical expertise!

It may be forgotten now - that management has brought this company through difficult times, conserved capital, avoided share dilution, commenced operations on a shoe string budget, coped through long period of Congo anomie, wet seasons, transport difficulties, Canada listing, contractor insolvency, smelting costs, equipment purchase (second hand plants), rebel activities, accusations of complicitness in Congo Army atrocities, etc, etc.

Some may also not realise that management have added value to company shares - from as low as 4 ?cents to the present share price.

Given all the uncertainties, risks and set backs one should realise that the share price is likely to be undervalued.

There was a time - not long ago - that many institutions and individuals would not contemplate accumulating Anvil shares purely for the reason that the company mined in the Congo.
Times are changing!
Times have changed.
Hopefully more to come.

Once the cry on Hotcopper was that the market was uninformed - ill informed and that management needed to change this state of affairs by being proactive and releasing good news and informing the market.

Well history has indicated that the market is informed.
That the market is aware of Anvil and Anvil's progress and potential.
However there are many companies as such.
Institutions put the money where easiest and quickest returns are available.
Institutions have re-valued Anvil on past performances.

Perhaps institutions have been adroit in this matter.
Set backs and steady progress have not been sufficient to rocket the share price.
Institutional valuations have been conservative and mostly safe.

Also, as indicated in recent posts, the market availability of Anvil shares is perhaps one of the biggest sheet anchors for the company share price.
Many Institutions prepared to pay a higher premium for Anvil shares can not participate because of lack of market depth.
Meaning purchasing a sizeable portfolio - and being able to unload such a portfolio when required - in the normal run of the market is not a realistic possibility.

The suggestion that Bill Turner spur the share price by flagging the positives and talking the company up is likely to be counterproductive.
Institutions insists on results.
Not the flagging of potential.

Any surge in share price not backed by actual performance (read PROFIT) will be ephemeral and will not be helpful long term.

So presenting the facts without hype is the only way to go.

The failure to adequately flag the negative effect of overburden problem was probably (in my opinion) orchestrated to ensure that borrowing of funds for continuing development and obtaining World Bank backing could be accomplished more adroitly.
It may well be that by not flagging the overburden-caused-set-back overall company progress was enhanced.

The quarterly report reads very well as I see it.
Very strong.
Flagging an even stronger future.
Not that institutions are quick to seize on such information - (PAST EARNINGS are the all - remember!)

Miningnut and Stone Pony will be better at analysing the report and I leave that to them.

Closer to 70 cents mid to late October?
Well share price is partly on the way to the hoped for target.
Market may be telling us that costs - fuel, legal, settlements, Kulumaziba infrastructure, etc. - may well detract from the huge surge in quarterly earnings.
Fortunately the main costs are "one offs".

Come on the financial statement!
Surely the "Closer to 70 cents" must by nigh.

And yes!
I believe the tipping point will move into place late this quarter/ early next quarter.

Cheers,

NT