Have just spent some time reviewing the financials to 30...

Have just spent some time reviewing the financials to 30 June.

BNB is clearly a very large and complex company.

Due to the equity accounting of some very large subsidiary/satellite companies - the loan liabilities are huge. However, the corporate facilities are not subject to any market value related triggers. There seems to be a sizeable number of non-recourse loans in the investment units. There also would appear cash requirements to complete the development projects.

Against this are the assets. There seems to be a very diverse set of assets in the various portfolios. The sense I get is that the range and type of asset classes could be regarded as "defensive".

I cannot answer the question "Which asset class, if impaired, will cause a negative equity situation?". I cannot even answer "Which asset class, if impaired, would cause cashflow difficulties in maintenance of the corporate loans?" (which would presumably break banking covenants).

I cannot see a factual basis for much of the highly negative sentiment on this thread.

If there is no significant asset impairment:

How can an NPAT positive company go bust? Ans: Death by a thousand cuts ... lots of little asset impairments ...

LIBOR and the BBSWR are trending down. This is good news on the debt management side.

Fee revenue is likely to dry up - but BNB has tremendous AUM (assets under management) - these fees are likely to be fixed over the term of the management obligations. In relative terms, the investment income is actually more significant.

The biggest threat I see is simply "counter party negative sentiment". The "bad press" associated with BNB's debt state causes the "deal making" engine to seize up.

I think a period of focus, consolidation and operation tuning (reduce expenses, promote cashflows) is what is needed. I see Drs Goldman and Sachs are in attendance.

(I actually am beginning to like the type project BNB gets involved with ... with some evidence of capital injection, or restructure ... I can see myself taking an equity position ...).

If it is a train wreck ... it will be a very very very very slow train wreck ...