I think if you look back a couple of weeks at some charts Robbb posted, you'll find that we're at quite a critical juncture.
There seem to be two distinct positions about fundamentals.
One school thinks that the global recovery is for real, and that many investors who have been holding back will come in now.
The other believes that the recovery is being artificially pumped up by government intervention, and that once this ceases consumers (in the US in particular) won't take up the slack.
My own feeling inclines more to the latter position, and my reading of technical factors leads me to think that the big rally is losing momentum.
But the timing of a big correction is anyone's guess, and may be delayed well into 2010 as the cheer leaders continue to spruik the green shoots they so desperately want to believe in.
If you're thinking about 2010 markets, I think it would pay to think risk/reward ratio. What's the most you can see the market advancing after the big rises from the lows, and what's the risk?
I can't see an upside of more than 15%, and a renewed test of the lows would entail big losses.
