Where is the Bottom, page-64

Thought I'd work out a new FCF based upon the goal of 500t/month of NdPr at current prices. Remembering of course the shut down for testing in the March Q will prevent this from actually happening (and Aus, I know Lynas is moving away from spot pricing!)
500t x 12months x $67AUD/kg ex VAT = $402m
Other RE 1000t x 12months x $3AUD/kg = $36m
Total $438m in revenue

Production costs per year $260m
Mining $20m
Interest $15m

Around $140m in FCF at today's prices.

Of course there are one offs that affect this like the AELB payments, exercise of warrants, de linkage to spot prices, improvement of non NdPr RE qualities etc. But Lynas is still raking in the cash.

Fully converted and with a conservative PE ratio of 10x Lynas is a $1.4bn company priced at 20c.

I guess the market considers there risk of further NdPr price drops so has a fair value of less than 20c. This risk outweighs any positive risk for expansion, price increases or other advantage Lynas has. Here is hoping the AGM later this month will swing that pendulum.