I've been spending a good amount of my long weekend looking into...

I've been spending a good amount of my long weekend looking into where the downside risk may be on VTG.

And basically have come to the conclusion that the only significant risk to the current share price would be action by Telstra that force total capitalution of the Vita Group business.

Even if the full 10% commission revenue reduction takes place, EPS would 'only' reduce by 30-50% next year, and that's considering no further action to costs (which of course would be reduced as much as possible). Even at -30% eps for the next 2 years, the current share price would be trading at roughly 7.5-8x fy19 eps... cheap.

For me the 'bet' on vtg right now is a bet that Telstra won't run their biggest retail partner
and only master licensee into complete decimation - I can't quite fathom how this would be beneficial to Telstra.

risk/reward is significant here, because the only main risk to current SP is Telstra killing VTG (through not extending license, or too aggressive terms)

Love to hear further thoughts on risks I'm not seeing?