AWE 0.00% 94.0¢ awe limited

ALL,From Sept 2010 presentation.September Quarter Update Pateke...

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    ALL,

    From Sept 2010 presentation.


    September Quarter Update
     Pateke workover completed
     Adelphi: takeover completed with strong reserves
    reported
     Board renewal process completed
     Yemen drilling continued, with encouragement
     Shale gas upside now understood
     AWE net production of 1.56 million boe
     Sales revenue of $63 million
     $75 million cash, no debt



    Perth Basin connected by under utilised pipeline
    to Perth gas market
     Strong predicted demand growth in WA gas
    market
     Key Australian gas market Price will support
    shale gas development

    Predicted WA gas demand and supply capacity
    the chart shows 2009 950 Mill scf/d
    by 2025 gas demand expected to be 1,800 Million scf/d



    AWE Forward Strategy

    slide 43
    In the long term, the conventional oil & gas E&P company is under
    pressure on several fronts:
    (a) Profitability
    Fewer discoveries
    Smaller fields
    Increased development costs
    Offset by increasing oil and gas prices
    (b) Environmental performance
    Montara & Gulf of Mexico oil spills are unacceptable
    (c) Emerging technologies eroding our markets
    CSG, shale gas
    Electrification of transport, particularly motor vehicles
    Renewable technologies (geothermal, solar, wind, tidal, etc) replacing gas in
    homes and in power generation facilities
    To grow, AWE needs to strategically reposition itself as an upstream
    energy company

    slide 44
    1. Grow our conventional upstream activities
    Oil & gas E&P (eg BassGas, Tui, Casino, Cliff Head, etc)
    Will continue as our core activity for at least the next decade
    Currently 80-90% of company value, but may reduce over time as we
    2. Move selectively into unconventional energy
    Primarily shale gas & liquids (but not excluding CSG, geothermal, etc where
    we can use our core competencies)
    Currently 10-20% of company value, but potential to increase significantly
    over time
    AWE already positioned as Australias pre-eminent shale gas & liquids co.
    3. Monitor emerging energy technologies for opportunities
    Emerging transportation fuels, renewable power generation, CO2
    sequestration, etc
    Currently no company value, with only small steps in the future to
    understand the threats & be in a position to exploit any opportunities






    Conclusion;
    The outlook is steady as she goes. Not hugely bullish like a junior explorer.
    Pluses They are established in the WA gas market
    Exploring for shale gas
    $75 million cash, no debt
    Market Cap ($M): 903
    Equiv. Shares (M): 522

    AWE has competition from other emerging energy sources..

    Emerging technologies eroding our markets
    CSG, shale gas
    Electrification of transport, particularly motor vehicles
    Renewable technologies (geothermal, solar, wind, tidal, etc) replacing gas in
    homes and in power generation facilities

    Dividend: No Divi paid at present

    " so need price growth instead to repay patient shareholders"
    Share price $1.70 "could be 17% upside in 6 months i hope"
    "So not a 10 bagger at this point"

    Share price returns
    ....... 3Months...6M....12M
    AWE ...12.3400 3.2800 -33.9700 %
    Sector 6.2167 10.8852 1.1211
    Market 2.9938 9.6336 -0.4213

    Broker concensus below
    Recommendation : Hold
    Recommendation Date : 15th Dec 2010
    12 Month Target Price (average) : $2.156
    Brokers Surveyed : 8







 
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