My guess is that the vote is still too close to call. They have enough of us small investors voting "no" to be worried, thus the multiple phone calls and letters.
However, ultimately the decision rests with instos as always, thus think you are right, they will only know where the vote stands a day or so before when final proxies come in via custodians. The custodians represent multiple investors and I think they only vote when all of their clients have indicated which way they want to vote. Until the actual votes are in, it is purely an educated guess.
If there were a few very large holders making a lot of noise, then a new deal would come quickly. When I looked previously, other than LLC, the register is widely held, which lends itself to waiting for the final votes.
Anyway, just my gut feel.
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