Yo Every body (9l,Ravo,SF,Sarala...Nice work (and a little shout out to Martis, lol))
AN hello everyone else... W000000t!!
Looks like I'm about to lose my shield, haven't been posting enough... Dohh... ah well... Those trained in the sword know it works as a pretty good defensive weapon as well so I'll have to stick with that ... blah blah blah.
Anyways... I've been stuffing about for the last few hours, learning a bit of Elliot Wave and seeing if I can apply it to this latest run.
Also been looking at other methods to potentially target where Price may go to before this up turn is finished.....
Firstly A quick glance at the daily..
We have definate serial divergance going on here, first price dropped while Histos rose, then price dropped while MAVs rose. That little triangle thing that is highlighted by the thick green line on the MACD is pretty significant...I've seen it before as a good indicator for protracted upside. I still remain unconvinced that all drop is finished with this chart though... can't justify it .... but, I would like to see another test of the low already put in with a bounce from equal to the low, or a little higher before I am truly convinced.
Also (zoom in):
We are still hanging around the 21MA level, and this is an area of uncertainty. we have pierced it though, so we may see some more upside... I would not be surprised if it waffles up and down a bit more... maybe for another day... But... there's more interesting stuff...
Zooom to two hourly... (soz zooming to two hourly cos I've got a lot of lines n stuff saved on the one hourly, that I will reveal soon)...
Now this is short term trading stuff here, treating this like a five minute chart...
Despite the fact that we have divergence showing in the Histos for this first run up (Suggesting Downside might occur sometime) there's a couple of things about recent price action that make me inclined to beleive we have more upside to come...
Firstly, you can see that price has just bounced off the 13MA (Orange thin line). That seems to be pretty standard action after dipping under it and going upside again.. first touch is a bounce, second can be a break.. if not, third probably will be... we'll see what happens....
Same thing seems to occur with the 21 MA, so I expect that to be tested some time soon ish, and a bounce off that as well...
So, just for the hell of it I'm going to run on the concept that we still have more upside to see in the next few days.. could I be wrong...
NO!
LOL 'Course I can be wrong, and anyone who trades on this just based on what I write is a fool... I'm trading on it, I am a fool....
Right.. back to the charty stuff.
Now the One hourly.. i've been going nuts on this, as you can see...
I have been doing a little bit of research into Elliot Waves, currently using A book called "Trading Chaos" by some Bloke by the name of Bill Williams to guide me.
I beleive I can see Elliot wave formations and I've marked them out in purple lines and numbered the waves...
Basically, I am contending Wave 1 occured on the bolt from the low of 3200 up through to 3500 between 21/22 Nov... Wave 2 was the retrace from 3500ish down to 3300ish, Wave 3 then ran from 3300ish to 3780, finishing around the 26th, followed by wave 4 (retrace) down to around 3510, and we are now either still in wave 4, or in wave 5...
I suspect we are in wave 5.
According to the book mentioned above, the length for wave 5 is somewhere between (1*(total rise from start of wave 1 to end of wave 3) = Approx 600) and 0.6 * (total rise from start of wave 1 to end of wave 3).
ASSUMING we are in Wave 5. This according to my calcs gives a target somewhere between 3870 and 4090.
Now this is the first time I've applied EW theory, and might be completely wrong... interesting though....
I've chucked in a couple of other things in there which I find kinda interesting as well as they are all pointing towards the same "Cluster zone " for targets.
If you look at the chart... On the right hand sight is a group of three vertical lines.
Green Verticle line = length of run of wave 1 + wave 2, Elliot, so placed at conjectured bottom of wave 4 to give rough idea of target for wave 5
Red Verticle line = .6 * (length of wave 1 + wave 2), elliot, so placed at conjectured bottom of wave 4 to give another rough idea of target for wave 5
Blue Verticle line = length of previous run up (can't see on chart, but occurred between 24th of Oct and 5th Nov) I contended this was a legitimate target in Robbbbbbs original "THinking Aloud" XJO thread last Sunday, just based on experience watching price.
Orange dashed line... This is conjecture... and theory that I am still testing out... basically this line is the first level of resistance prior to the beginning of the divergent drop that started on 10th Nov and concluded on 21st of Nov (Divergent through rising Histograms in Macd whilst price dropped.
I am contending that this is a legitimate target for a turn after divergence... unknown though.... (time of start of divergence marked by Light Blue/grey Verticle line on left hand side of Price chart, Divergence in MACD Histows shown with Purple sloping line on MACD.)
Blue dotted line is the trendline from the last two peaks of the down trend that has been occuring from late September 'til now...
Anyways... all very interesting, and I wait with anticipation to see what price actually does... Also hope a few others can give some of their thoughts here....
Note... when downside comes, and I expect it will.. if you look back at the 1 hourly chart above, you'll note there is divergence occurring on the MACD Histos... that is, they are falling whilst price is rising...
If my conjecture that a retrace of a divergent trend occurs back to the first resistance point before the divergence started.... We are looking at retracing almost the complete rise we have just seen... but still conjecture and only tested by time....
Happy trading this week.. and Options Expiry is over... YAAAAAY!
(20min delay)