Aaaw way to spoil the fun with your fancy 'analysis'
Nah thanks thought that's actually really interesting. I'm gonna admit i'm mostly going by the chart/gut/how I think the market will react to certain news - if I was working it out based off more than that I would've shared it in the post. You could also flip your question around and ask: are you making the assumption that a strongly positive announcement alongside the DFS is already fully priced into the current market price despite not yet knowing what it might be?
I'm not as familiar with this approach to valuation, and it's one of many so I can't say this is actually gonna get it to my optimistic guestimate but if push came to shove I'd put it down to 2 things:
- We're smashing benchmarks.
- Isn't this approach primarily used for mining companies? And the massive win for TLG comes from the fact that they've put in the hard yards to become an anode supplier? Totally different market dynamics and profit margins so different approach to valuation?
Throw on top of that a healthy does of market enthusiasm around all things BEV related - even if valuing as a miner the markets are still valuing battery materials currently differently to more established commodities like gold or iron.
I'm not sure where the 30% valuation comes from. I'm not disagreeing it's a commonly used value but again I'm not familiar enough with this approach to have come a cross it much. Did a bit of quick reading up on valuing projects at DFS/PFS - again all mining related and I came across some research leading to a 30% number by
these guys but again they qualify it by saying 'up to 133.5% - so there's a pretty damn big range there and as I've said I believe TLG sits well above benchmarks.
So I suppose the assumptions would be :
- Valued as a chemical company (anode supplier) not a miner.
- Talga EXCEEDS benchmarks - just look at our cost of production.
- Additional weighting from macroeconomic around the BEV thematic that don't affect the numbers per-say but definitely increase the value of the company (de-risk, expanding demand, potential EU grants/subsidies....)
So if we don't value it as a miner how best to value it? There's others on here waaay better at that than me that have already shared their thoughts on the matter.
Maybe this valuation method explains a bit the share price action this year. Half the market is still valuing it as a miner so is coming to a much lower number? I don't think DFS will change that but I reckon a few partnership announcements or supply MOU's would.
(20min delay)
