Yep ... we just go round and around, We all have the same information ... and while I agree wit the commentary about where this business is heading and what Mick Davis has said and all the potential upside, the ACTUAL FACT of the matter has been drawn out in detail by MT in his capital raising presentation ... and pretty much nothing else matters .... unless of course you feel like out hyping Quantumscape or DeepGreen
Yes, your view is extremely bullish with the statement "So USD 3.6Bn at 80% margin. Would command lets say an extremely Conservative 5x revenue being $18Bn"
I'm certainly not going to say its wrong ... I don't think its probable that in 2021 (or 2022, or 2023) that TLG will have an Enterprise Value of $18B (so that includes Debt ... which for 300,000 tonnes of Talnode-C is substantial ... say $3B). Also think its improbable that the share count will be the same.
Could we be producing 300,000 tonnes of Battery Anode Materials in 2027 ... possibly ... but no plans have been published by MT that illustrates that objective (yet).
I know it doesn't sit well ... but the published plan is the published plan until a new plan is published (by MT not @pabs or @cmonaussie or anyone else)
This IMO is your best argument for why TLG offers a good (great?) risk adjusted reward "This offers asymmetric upside AND a good margin for error in our buy MC v Valuation"
I mean what could go wrong (its rhetorical and doesn't need answering as its a long list many of which are in the CR presentation slide deck).
So it was a tough week ... big deal ... TLG will have great weeks and tough weeks ... depends on your end game.
TLG Price at posting:
$1.22 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
