where is this going in the next two months?

A few background issues that cause me to write this post:

Against:

AWC share price has been in decline for a period, shaving 50% off in the last 6-months
It's closed below its 10-day EMA since the start of December.
Platts FOB aluminium price is hitting 1-year lows.
Alcoa posted a loss in the latest quarterly.
Kurri kurri and Tomago just laid off several hundred people.

However:

At least one options trader here has a bullish view, picking the bottom.
Alcoa says things are looking good for aluminium in 2012 (7% growth) and everyone seems to be believing the message (this seems to be the crucial factor; getting Alumina back near $400/mt). Any fundamental reason why this would happen, apart from cutting production volumes?


I'm looking at what position I might take, if any. Anyone got any opinions on a compelling side of the argument either way?