This company, after the capital raising had a net Debt of $49m...

This company, after the capital raising had a net Debt of $49m in Dec 09. In Dec 12, after a period that we had the Commodities boom, net debt had blown out to $512m.
It happened as follows (numbers are the sum of movements over the 3 fiscal years):
EBITDA: 900
Interest: (58)
Tax: (140)
Working Capital: (375)
Capex: (644)
Other: (43)
Dividends : (103)
Since then, by mid May, net debt continued to escalate and has now reached $585m.
The company expects EBITDA for 2013 year to be around the low $200m.
The company's debt covenants kick in at 3.5x EBITDA.
Let's assume that Net Debt does not increase further (based on what they have shown so far, it would be a brave assumption). This means that if EBITDA drops to $167m (ie 585 divided by 3.5), that they would be in breach.
If you assume that there will be declining mining investment, it is not hard to assume that EBITDA in 2014 will drop down to these levels and hence the company will breach its debt covenants.
Therefore, I feel that if current conditions continue, that the company will pre-empt this, like it did back in 2009 and do a capital raising (which is what the market is probably pricing in).
It feels tempting to buy in at these levels (especially given directors have bought in big), but there might be a much better opportunity later on.