Where others have failed will Atl1102 succeed ?, page-790

@alakinfitzt

I don't think anyone’s suggesting that we’d be getting $500M solely to fund the trials. I think that’d be a valuation for Sarepta's license use of ATL1102 in the US and/or Europe, NOT a payment for the trial cost lmao.Also if Sarepta pays $500M USD, the market will re-evaluate the fair share price with this in mind.

Infact, I would not be surprised if the share price over rerates more than the theoretical enterprise value (667M + 167M AUD in the 500M USD deal scenario)@RYNZN:A $500M USD deal would rerate the Enterprise Value of ANP to be approx. ~834M AUD.I think off of this deal value - change in ANP’s balance sheet alone, I’d expect the market to drive the SP towards this EV, so roughly $1.44 AUD per share. Also I understand your point with regards to $500M being quite high, but I don't think any of us are really equipped to accurately value ANP other than our revenue projections/comparisons to Exondys-51 and inclusions of the other indications.

What might be worth considering is the opportunity cost for both Sarepta and ANP, in the case of a deal:

For Sarepta, they are desperately in need of efficacy data and to resurrect their DMD therapeutics program one way or another - ATL1102 would provide them a resurgent flagship drug in pipeline that would take eyes away from their existing failures and minimise any issues with SRP-9001. They have had an incredibly poor year in the market with some horrific intraday losses.

For ANP, they need funding for these trials to go ahead, but they don't need it to come from Sarepta. At the end of the day they could do a capital raise for the approx $27M (please correct me if this figure is wrong) needed for the P2B trials to go ahead.

I believe that the opportunity cost is too great for Sarepta to pass up with a low ball offer. ANP can go elsewhere, I don't think Sarepta really can.

This is all of course predicated on an actual deal occurring between Sarepta and ANP. I absolutely agree with the premise that we should temper our expectations for what's going to happen on Monday morning or onwards, however I do think that many of the deal projections being posted here are inside confines of reason given the value proposition that ANP has.

If anyone else is interested in growth factor potentiation and its links to cancer proliferation:
I've been listening to a fantastic series on Youtube that elucidates some of the intra and extracellular mechanisms that underpin the link between growth factor proteins and cell proliferation, apoptosis resistance, metastasis (disintegration of the extracellular matrix), and a bunch of other cellular attributes that make cancers such as lung cancer, sarcomas, glioblastomas so deadly. It's a great listen and will explain why ATL1102's ability to downregulate TSP-1 is so important in the context of cancers, our other indications. It also provides a summary of growth factors at the start that will similarly explain how they work, so we can put TGF-B and LTBP4 (precursor) into context for ATL1102's mechanism of action within connective tissue regeneration.

A number of existing cancer therapeutics target growth factor pre/post - transcriptional regulation (think Pi3K, IGF1) and I believe that ANP will play an important role within connective tissue related carcinoma treatment in years to come due to ATL1102's modulation of these growth factors.

Let me know what you all think!