where`s the beef?

~Where`s the Beef` was A phase coined to bring attention to the SUBSTANCE in one of Americas best ad compaigns.
Its been interesting reading the pro`s and con`s in ADX as the waiting game throws up many theories.
With the AGM less than 6 days away an imminent announcement on the resource at SD expected maybe its time to look at the substance and not the opinion.
Everyone knows SD is in Tunisia. They have found OIL. The company is taking its time it valuing the find and the total value. This could be due to the recent election. ADX had estimated 44 MILLION barrells prior to spud. Xstate had advice the chorbane licence could hold 300 million.
I`d like to move the debate from opinion to value.
My calculation is that if there is 44 million barrells in SD, TUNSIA ETAP takes back 50% (and repays costs)ADX will get 20% of revenue. My calculator multiples ADX`s share 8,800,000 barrells by $80 per barrel= $704,000,000 income. Current adx Valuation $40,0000. More interesting to me is that even discounting other assets in the portfolio to zero SD has only to prove up a total volume of 3- 3.5 million barrels by my calculation to justify current share price taking into account expected development costs.
I value the debate by Good oil who appears to have some experience and wish he had some shares he would sell me cheap before the next announcement. Nationalisation of the well would never happen as no company would ever play with the government after that. Tunisia needs the income and the oil companies interest to provide exploration costs.. As shown by the peaceful revolution and election the people are not hot headed or stupid.
To me ADX carries less risk than most oil companies on the ASX. Two years back it was trading twice as high as it is now without SD.
Can`t help but smell something in the slow movements by the company to date but that could be due to the huge amount of BEEF (oil) it has just found and not the lack of it.
Anyone here attending the AGM?