when Landbridge first stuck their head up with their "virtual" bid, I remember I stated that GLNG and Santos would be very, very concerned if there was a chance that their supply of gas under the GSA was threatened.
The more I think about it, the more obvious it is.
L/B is a private Chinese company, with no experience in the production of gas.
The GSA is "flexible". WCL must provide all the gas produced up to 65tj/d to GLNG.
But importantly, WCL nominates the quantity. So GLNG runs the risk that WCL will simply chose not to supply as much gas as GLNG would expect (and have counted on) OR more likely, not be competent enough to produce said gas.
What are they going to do? sue the Chinese? good luck on that one.
Remember GLNG have spent maybe $20B on their project. That project goes no where without gas. Every bit of gas is important, and the Meridian field supply is an important piece of their puzzle. It is close, cheap, and was secure.
So imho, there is no way that GLNG or STO would allow their gas supply to be placed in jeopardy.
It would not surprise me to see Santos or GLNG come in with a bid - and at a price which is acceptable to NHC and EIT ! And also, STO would have no FIRB or ACCC concerns. they could move quickly.
AND, remember, that the Board of WCL stated that the price of 36c was "manifestly inadequate"
So imho, if anyone sells into this market, they are crazy.
there is still a lot of action yet to come.
Not only has the Fat Lady not sung, but she is still having a ciggy on the step outside!
cheers and good luck to us all
WCL Price at posting:
32.5¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
