where to for the usd, page-2

Been thrashing out those two questions in my mind for the last three months! Tough questions to answer.

This guy is forecasting the AUD 40c or below:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a0hZyrJpA.Sg&refer=australia

Frankie2008 recently said he sees 50c.

St George sees 59c
http://www.stgeorge.com.au/corporate-business/report-centre/aussie-dollar-outlook.asp

Commonwealth bank also sees 59c
http://business.theage.com.au/business/aussies-plunge-far-from-over-20081020-548x.html

Alan Kohler (ABC News) recently said he sees 50c.

So quite a few people see a lower AUD from here. I think the Reserve Bank might find itself in a bind if the AUD gets to 50c because by lowering rates further will seriously let loose the inflation genie, they may need to raise rates to halt the slide like Hungary did. However, I believe Steve Keen (Aussie economic academic) suggested that rates would reach 0%, I hate think what the AUD would be if we reach that point. Also there is expected to be a lot more foreclosures here in Australia in 2009 (Steve Keen forecasting 40% drop in the price of houses) this may or may not be a positive effect on the AUD as it extinguishes debt.

The St George report suggests the USD will remain strong for a while yet.

However, the Gold group are suggesting that the USD dollar is history at some time in the future, with no definite timing. Some say with a few weeks and others say next year or longer. While all the bailouts seem inflationary and the US is up to its neck in debt, there are also deflationary forces out there, such as the lack of bank lending, rising unemployment, termination of household debt through foreclosure etc.

In my view, tough to answer where the USD is headed and even if its going to tank at some point.

I've been toying with idea of setting up separate bank accounts in yen, swiss francs or maybe permanently shorting the AUD on igmarkets with stops. Probably the best move of these is shorting the AUD, as the Japanese govt might do something to devalue the yen to stimulate exports and the swiss have loaned a lot of money to the Eastern Europeans who look like they may default putting downward pressure on the swissy.

Pretty hard to find a safe place at the moment to park cash!