exc analysis by Camden.Re my assertion he writes: “by the end of...

exc analysis by Camden.

Re my assertion he writes: “by the end of Feb” is immaterial."
And that's a key difference between our 2 styles of investing. Camden buys with intention of holding the share for a decade. I buy based on fundamentals but always include an element of 'timing the mkt'. I'm not convinced Mr Mkt stills looks 12-18 months ahead. I offer the crazy zig zag graph of almost every listed company over the past 5 years to illustrate my point. Because I'm anticipating a soft sales report for 1HFY13 i'm expecting SP to soften.... and then use this to exit my position with a profit. One huge advantage of holding short positions is the investor gets paid whilst position remains open.... PROVIDED one doesn't hold on the ex div date. So for me the end of Feb certainly is material.

Thanks for pointing out something to me. I was sure WES paid divs at a ratio of about 85%.

My stance on WES is strongly influenced by another 'value investor'. Roger Montgomery cannot let a year go by without writing in Eureka report and elsewhere how WES is flawed and heading for a substantial downturn. Interesting how Camden and Roger see the company so differently. I'll have to be careful but will dig out some stuff of Roger's to post.

The posts are long gone now but my previous 2 short positions with WES (both on HC) yielded profits for me. However, my current short on CBA looks blue around the gills and that in WBC not much better. NAB was profitable. So too ANZ but substantially less so.

Combining fundamentals with timing is not easy esp in a fragile world. But that's what i try my best to do.