As I write we are sitting on 22 cents a share (close Tuesday), which is about 7.9 x earnings - ie a PE of 7.9. I have used the underlying earnings for this calc - ie, 1.37/49.3 = 2.78 cents per share and 22/2.78 = 7.91
Management say in the AR they are expecting future profits to increase. Hence we ar sitting on a very low PE for next year's expected earnings.
Contracts already announced would indicate this scenario of increased profits is very likely. So why is the SP so low?
Answer (my guess)
Most of the shareholders are individuals - there is little institutional interest - and given the history of the last 10 years few will believe a turnaround until it is in front of us in a post event report. Hence many are prepared to sell off at the current low price, which is up about 40% on recent lows.
What we need is some institutional interest. That will probably take some time since Orbital has long since left the institutional radar screen. If we do get a good check out then I think our 'future profit' prospects would command a price of about 20 x earnings, which is about 55 cents a share. Not fantastic but certainly worth a bit of a wait compared with the current 20 to 22 on offer.
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