Given recent events picking the SP of this one is a challenge....

Given recent events picking the SP of this one is a challenge.

Obviously if the trial is unsuccessful it's not so hard, though punters here have offered up a price range of 1-4c with either end of the spectrum seeming plausible. And looking at the way ACL was smashed that might be the way things go.

With a string of recent disasters in bio, would a success with NEU then not be as much of a booster as anticipated (because it "could all still go wrong") or would there be a strong reaction because, finally, there was some sort of success story?

The current pre-ann sp heaviliy discounts the possibility of working with multiple indications, an attitude of "if one fails they all fail". Would the sp start to reflect the other markets or would people keep on waiting until the product actually hit the market?

Also, I don't think the current price factors in 2591. Again "if one fails they all fail". Maybe if 2566 gets up then that improves the risk profile for 2591 and the price gets some traction on that as well.

On simple probabilities, at Phase I 2566 has a 1/6 chance of success. That then jumps to 1/2 after phase two. In the standard scenario (orphan status notwithstanding) you then still have a coin toss to go before getting to market.

So in theory the price should jump by a factor of 3. But 3 times what? Is the current price fair, under or over valued?

The recent broker reports seem reasonable to me, but one thing that worries me is the psychological dictum that once you get a number in your head (19c for BP for example) it's very hard to shake it off (I recommend the book "Thinking Fast And Slow" to all of you). So 19c sounds like a baseline to me, but that may be way off the mark. I would hope that we'd strongly break the 14c that we reached last year.