Where to from here....

Firstly re the last 2 posts-IMC can exercise the options as soon as they are issued,up to 5 years out.
Where to from here? Im very bullish on HZN for the following reasons:
1. HZN think they only need/needed $US 50m from IMC,not $US 60m from them and us shareholders.
I am not going to second-guess their $60m or $50m calculations so until or unless they are shown to have significantly miscalculated the position on the date of the "50m" statement,or anticipated the future over bullishly, that is it for me.Note the assumption that follows.
If HZN were to have got the equation(s) above wrong then the probability that they would increase their support in some way,within reasonable limits, is extremely high.You dont throw $50m at something and not throw a bit more if the sums werent quite correct. This is a principal favourable feature of borrowing from IMC and not unconnected parties.
2. The IMC interest rate basis ,IMO, isnt too bad. As at yesterdays 3-month libor rate (the one used in our deal with IMC)of minus 0.7284% thats an interest charge of 8.2716% net.
3. The exercising of the options triggers priority repayment of about $13-$14m US of the $50m US.
4. Future,reliable cash flow. I have calculated where we are going as far as our only 2 cash earners and their likely affect on free cash flow available for debt repayment and debt interest. The Beibu production earnings are magnified by the ORE (oil repayment entitlement).
Beibu. There is no reason to believe that current productions rates (27% above what I suspect is a "nameplate" rate (the name they use for an LNG plants rate ,for example) for the wells, established in say in 2013 when the wells were drilled wont be sustained. cont.