AX1 4.70% $2.45 accent group limited

@thunderhead1 My answer to your question is: No, I'm not...

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    @thunderhead1

    My answer to your question is: No, I'm not interested in this cigar-butt.

    Please note that I haven't done any in-depth analysis of RCG for a long time. The last time I seriously looked into it was back in 2009 and since then I have been following it on a superficial level.

    But I will still give you my reasons (which might be incorrect):

    - Amazon. Personally I believe that RCG's future won't be enhanced by the arrival of this online giant.

    - Sale of significant amount of shares by original backers of RCG last year at $1.50 had again proved that insiders know best!

    - Current management structure of having 2 Co-CEO is not a good idea. I believe it's only a matter of time before a clash of ego ala Vocus happens here. I might be wrong on this though!

    - Bad news usually is not isolated. There are people who believe that bad news usually comes in three. In RCG's case, it's already on two.

    The first downgrade on 24/02/17 from FY17 EBITDA guidance of $90m (which was affirmed in 2016 AGM) to a guidance of $85-88m.

    The second downgrade on 01/05/17 brought the guidance for FY17 EBITDA to $74-80m.

    With the H1 2017 EBITDA coming in at $42.9m, this means that the rate of decline in the second half is accelerating.

    - All of these are happening while the operating lease commitment is increasing from $106m in FY2015 to $168m in FY2016, and to $292m in HY2017.

    - I also believe that the management and directors are overpaid and that they look after themselves first and minority shareholders second.

    Cheers
 
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