Where to from here., page-51

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Bomber78

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28/11/17

17:05

Post #: 29187860
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Originally posted by aiki99 ↑

$US

My figures come from people who work in the industry, not Commsec analysts.

As far as PFS figures for an ASX listed junior mining company, they are not worth the paper they are written on. Australian JORC and ASX regulations pretty much enable you to write whatever CAPEX and OPEX you like. It is never checked, the background prices used do not have to be disclosed. TSX regulations are much stricter. DFS studies done by large reputable engineering firms often have a higher CAPEX because they are done more rigorously.

From Clean TeQ's own release, stating a re-release of the PFS to bring into line with TSX NI 43-101 regulations:
"Specifically, the Report estimates total capital costs for the Project to be US$784M (including a contingency of US$102 million) compared to the original 2016 PFS capital cost estimate of US$680M (including US$62 million contingency). SRK have also revised operating costs per pound of nickel produced (including cobalt credits) from the 2016 PFS assumption of US$0.89/lb to US$1.42/lb. The increases to capital and operating costs are due to re-estimation of the processing capital and operating costs based on latest designs as well as updated labor rates and raw material costs. While these changes have resulted in a minor reduction in the post-tax internal rate of return from 25% to 21%, the economics of the Project, at conservative commodity price forecasts (US$7.50/lb Ni and US$14.00/lb Co, inclusive of sulphate premia), remain strong."

In other words, when someone reputable (SRK always underestimate costs in my experience dealing with them and they have zero experience with HPAL plants) gets hold of the figures, they went up even at PFS level. I can't see how they can continue to hold onto US$7.50/lb for nickel. It is US$5.23/lb today and hasn't been $7.50 for years. Whilst the cobalt price is conservative, the nickel price is inflated. A billion aussie dollars at 21% IRR is not going to set the resource world on fire.

Expand

$7.50 incl sulphate premium. Up to $2.50 for Ni sulphate premium. $5.23+$2.50 = $7.73lb

Also allow for increase in cobalt tonnage to 5000t pa not incorporated into PFS.

Also add 80t pa of Scandiun oxide by product @ $1500kg not incorporated into PFS. As by product costs will be minimal.

Plus addition of platinum not incorporated into PFS.

Revised NPV and IRR to come in DFS Q1 2018 and the Chinese know it.

CLQ Price at posting: $1.52 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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Where to from here., page-51

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Where to from here., page-51

Top Stories

TMK Energy kicks off drilling for new pilot wells in Mongolia's vastly underexplored Gobi

Droneshield shares move up on $13.5M US govt contract

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