where to from here, page-2

Short term it's a difficult call as the SP has headed north in the last few days.

This stock is still being heavily day-traded, although nowhere near as much as CNP. On Tuesday we saw Goldman Sachs pick up around 1m shares and both Morgan Stanley and Deutsche have been net-buyers this week.

Deutsche are probably buying for a client and it could be Orbis topping up their stake.

You may be aware that Morgan Stanley have a large commercial real estate portfolio (boosted by their purchase of Investa last year) although to date they are not into shopping centres. Again, probably a client purchase.

I think the smart money is with CER at this stage although if you look close enough, the fate of CER rests firmly with that of CNP as the loan extensions to September are contingent upon the Aus banks extending past 30th April. The fact that instos are buying and we have at least one value investor, Orbis, as a sub holder shows more confidence in this stock.

We may see some short-term profit taking but I suspect that any drop in SP caused by retail investors will be countered by instos. I also sense that people are more comfortable holding CER overnight than CNP.

CER has ring-fenced debt in Super LLC which means in the unlikely event of SLLC going under, CER is almost certain to survive.

We hold both - CER will shelter us from any major trauma that may occur but is unlikely to provide the same upside as CNP if the group pulls through.

Having said all this though, the clock is now ticking very loud on the announcement. If we get even a whiff of good news, the days of buying CER at these prices will be long gone.